Britain's Safest Seats (see also http://psephologist.blog.com)

What constitutes a safe seat? Let me throw the following suggestion out there. First of all, it is not sufficient to state that a seat is safe if the elected Member of Parliament possesses more than half of the vote. At Bristol North East in 1970, Robert Adley accumulated more than fifty per cent of the votes cast, but his majority was a measly 462. This may be an extreme example, but it does illustrate that just because Candidate A has more votes than all the other candidates added together, this does not automatically render he or she the custodian of a safe seat.

I would argue that a seat is safe (indeed ultra-safe) if the MP’s majority is greater than the total votes polled by the other candidates. I am guessing that one will struggle to find too many occasions when this safe seat scenario has not been valid. One occasion when such a safe seat is indeed unsafe is at a by-election. Glasgow East in 2008 illustrates this exception.

Anyhow, now that the Boundary Commission’s most recent recommendations have regrettably been mothballed, I have taken the liberty of pouring over all the 650 constituency results from the most recent British general election charade in May 2010. Applying my criteria, I was surprised to find only 25 seats which fall into my safe seat category. I think that we can safely say that there are a great many more constituencies where the current incumbent can sleep safely in their bed in advance of their next beauty contest in 2015. Therefore, it might be more prudent to define my findings as ultra-safe seats, in other words, the kind of constituency contests which are basically non-contests, the political equivalent of a five furlong horse race involving a champion sprinter competing against three or four donkeys. The listed constituencies consequently can be described as Britain’s safest 25 seats, where to coin a phrase, the incumbent MP ‘only has to turn up to win’. You won’t find too may high profile politicians and front-bench spokespersons campaigning in such constituencies, because their result will be deemed a foregone conclusion. Instead, those persons living within the confines of a key marginal will instead have the joy or pain of a multitude of heavyweight politicos tramping up and down their shopping precincts and beyond, ensuring that every possible vote can be squeezed out of such target seats at the next national poll.

Meanwhile, here are the 25 seats that appear to be ‘safe as houses’, five of which are in the current possession of the Conservative Party while the Labour Party currently lays claim to seventeen such Westminster strongholds. In the list underneath, the MPs are Conservative, unless otherwise stated. Only thirteen are located in England’s green and pleasant land, while there are none in Wales. Northern Ireland boasts two such ultra-safe seats whilst north of the border, there are no fewer than ten mega-safe seats. The MPs of such fiefdoms will not thank me for publishing these findings as perversely there is nothing that galvanises people more than the thought that they and their vote are taken for granted. Could a surprise therefore be on the cards? I doubt this somehow!   

[compiled by Gary Watton; author of The Celtic Fringe (GW Publications, 2012) under the anagram pseudonym of 'Grant Toway'

Beaconsfield

Belfast West [Sinn Fein]

Birkenhead [Labour]

Bootle  [Labour]

Chelsea and Fulham

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill [Labour]

Down North [Independent Unionist]

Dunbartonshire West [Labour]

Easington  [Labour]

East Ham [Labour]

Glasgow North East  [Labour]

Glasgow South West  [Labour]

Glenrothes  [Labour]

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath  [Labour]

Knowsley  [Labour]

Maldon

Motherwell and Wishaw  [Labour]

Orkney and Shetland [Liberal Democrat]

Paisley and Renfrewshire South  [Labour]

Rayleigh and Wickford

Richmond (Yorkshire)

Rutherglen and Hamilton West  [Labour]

South Holland and The Deepings  [Labour]

Tottenham  [Labour]

West Ham  [Labour]